Otto von Guericke University Magdeburg, Germany
Title: Mathematical model to calculate the sensitivity of anthropogenic CO2on global Earth temperature
The authors belong to the Institute of Fluid Dynamics and Thermodynamics at the Otto-von-Guericke-University Magdeburg and to the Institute for Energy Process Engineering and Fuel Technology at the Clausthal University of Technology in Germany and conduct research in the field of heat radiation in industrial kilns.
There are countless climate models, which predict the impacts of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions on the global earth temperature. Because of the large number of influencing parameters used, these models are mostly very complex, so the influences of the particular parameter can hardly be comprehended, i.e. the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.
Due to this fact, the greenhouse effect is described with simple analytical resolvable equations. Therefore a simplified uniform surface temperature of the earth is assumed. The radiation exchange between earth, clouds, space and the layers of gas between is calculated with these equations, which were developed for the analogue radiation exchange in industrial furnaces. With this model, the temperature profile in the atmosphere can be described relatively well.
The CO2 in the atmosphere acts as a radiation shield, which increases the heat resistance against the outgoing long-wave radiation from the earth surface. The known average temperature of the Earth was used to validate this model.
When the CO2 in the atmosphere is doubled, the absorptivity increases slightly.Because of this increase, the temperature of the earth surface has to increase about 0.4 Kelvin to compensate the increased heat transport resistance.
Since 1860,the Earth's temperaturehas already risendue toanthropogenic CO2emissionsby0.2Kelvin. The measuredincrease of about0.9Kelvinis attributed toside effectscausedby theCO2 related temperature increase. Therefore, atemperatureincrease of more than 0.4 Kelvinis predictedfor the future.Without CO2, the temperature of the Earth would be 4 K colder.