Scientific Program

Conference Series Ltd invites all the participants across the globe to attend 4th World Conference on Climate Change Rome, Italy.

Day 1 :

Climate Change 2017 International Conference Keynote Speaker Agustin J. Colussi photo
Biography:

Agustín J. Colussi, a Research Professor at CALTECH since 1998, has published more than 200 papers in environmental physical chemistry. http://www.its.caltech.edu/~ajcoluss/

Abstract:

The oxidation of biogenic dimethyl sulfide (DMS) emissions is a global source of cloud condensation nuclei. The amounts of the nucleating H2SO4(g) species produced in such process, however, remain uncertain. Hydrophobic DMS is mostly oxidized in the gas-phase into H2SO4(g) + DMSO(g) (dimethyl sulfoxide), whereas water-soluble DMSO is oxidized into H2SO4(g) in the gas-phase but into SO42- + MeSO3- (methane sulfonate) on water surfaces. Thus, R = MeSO3-/non- sea-salt-SO42- ratios would therefore gauge both the strength of DMS sources and the extent of DMSO heterogeneous oxidation if Rhet = MeSO3-/SO42- for DMSO(aq) + ·OH(g) were known. Here we report that Rhet  = 2.7, a value obtained from online electrospray mass spectra of DMSO(aq) +

·OH(g) reaction products, which quantifies the MeSO3- produced in DMSO heterogeneous  oxidation on aqueous aerosols for the first time. On this basis, the inverse R-dependence on particle radius in size-segregated aerosol collected over Syowa station and Southern oceans is shown to be consistent with the competition between DMSO gas-phase oxidation and its mass accommodation followed by oxidation on aqueous droplets. Geographical R variations are thus associated with variable contributions of the heterogeneous pathway to DMSO atmospheric oxidation, which increase with the specific surface area of local aerosols.

Climate Change 2017 International Conference Keynote Speaker Irina Cech photo
Biography:

Irina Cech graduated from the University of Moscow with the degree in Engineering Hydrology. She received her Ph.D. degree from the University of Texas, with the major in Environmental Health Sciences. During her 37 years as Professor at the University of Texas, Dr. Cech provided dedicated and enthusiastic service to the field of Public Health. Dr. Cech served as a Special Assistant to the U. S. House of Representatives, Oversight and Investigation Subcommittee, of the Energy and Commerce Committee. She has been an international speaker supported by U.S. Information Agency in the People’s Republic of China, Slovenia, Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Morocco. She served as a member of the of the U.S. Congress Sciences and Policy Delegation to Latvia, Estonia, Finland, and Poland. She serves as Director of Houston-based Citizens Coalition for Environmental Actions Now and worked with an investigative team of newspaper Houston Chronicle. In February 2017, Dr. Cech was an invited guest and a panelist at the World Government Summit in Dubai.

Abstract:

The processes contributing to climate changes are multifactorial and complex, being dependent on the amount of energy Earth receives from the Sun and on events outside of human control, i.e., volcanic eruptions and wild fires. Scientists also noticed a close congruity between the changes in concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere and air temperatures. It was postulated that recently observed global warming trend is either partially (or mostly) caused by human activity bringing about the releases into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases. Year 2015 was the warmest in the temperature record going back to 1880 and it has been further surpassed in 2016.
More than one-third of the Earth population lives within about 60 km of a coastline, including thirteen of the world largest cities. This presentation will explain what the global climate change means to coastal settlements anticipated rise in sea level.
Although focus to date has been on global mean temperature, the regional variation also offer some clues. Figure 1 illustrates trends in regression slopes for 16 weather stations in the State of Texas for the seventy-year period from 1934 to 2004. A statistically significant increase in mean annual temperature was observed in the coastal regions on both sides of the state border – with Mexico on the west and with Louisiana on the east.
This distribution points to the effect of human factor more than any others. The rapid increase in population in the border regions has brought changes in land use, increase in concrete and asphalt pawing surfaces, increase in motor vehicle uses, and burning fuel to cool and heat houses. The border with Louisiana also was an area of increased oil production.
Statewide, as well as on the individual levels, we need to promote a quicker transition to clean energy options. Texas is currently the largest wind power generating state in the US. Examples of wind and solar power projects will be presented from the US, Sicily, Afghanistan, and Dubai. A digital revolution created many opportunities for innovations, of which examples will be provided.

Keynote Forum

Joseph Tomain

University of Cincinnati, USA

Keynote: The status of US climate and clean energy policy

Time : 09:50-10:15

Climate Change 2017 International Conference Keynote Speaker Joseph Tomain photo
Biography:

Joseph P. Tomain is Dean Emeritus and the Wilbert and Helen Ziegler Professor of Law.  He has written extensively in the energy law field as noted by his recent publications.  Dean Tomain also has published books entitled Achieving Democracy:The Future of Progressive Regulation (2014 Oxford University Press) and Creon’s Ghost: Law, Justice and the Humanities (2009 Oxford University Press).

In addition to his teaching and scholarship, Dean Tomain serves on a number of professional and civic organizations. Dean Tomain also has held positions as Visiting Environmental Scholar, Lewis & Clark Law School; Distinguished Visiting Energy Professor, Vermont Law School; Visiting Scholar in the Program of Liberal Studies, University of Notre Dame; Visiting Fellow, Harris Manchester College, Oxford University; Fulbright Senior Specialist in law in Cambodia; and National Endowment for the Humanities Summer Fellow, Stanford University.

Abstract:

On December 12, 2015, 195 nations signed what has been hailed as an historic climate agreement. The agreement went into effect on November 4 this year with 116 signatories. Additionally, one year ago, the Obama administration initiated its Clean Power Plan (CPP), the first major federal effort to merge energy and the environment for the purpose of addressing climate change. Unfortunately, two events have conspired to slow down those efforts. First the CPP has been challenged in court and a decision is expected shortly. Second, he election of Donald Trump raises serious questions about a continued commitment to both efforts in no small part because of the persons he has announced as heading federal energy and environmental agencies.

The proposed presentation will address the status of federal climate efforts and will argue that although a transition to a clean future has been occurring for decades now, particularly at the state level, additional initiatives can be undertaken for a successful transition.

First, three preconditions must be satisfied: (1) federal leadership, both domestically and globally, will facilitate, but not end, the transition;  (2) clean energy resources must be clearly defined and supported; and (3) the transition must be placed in its proper economic and political contexts. In this later regard, a clean power transition is not inimical to economic growth and, therefore, policies supporting competitive clean energy markets are necessary.

           Once the preconditions have been specified, then the second element is that innovation must occur also along three dimensions; (1) federal innovation policy and funding must support clean energy technologies; (2) business innovations in the private sector must follow; and (3) supporting regulatory innovations must occur at the state and federal levels.

            The transition to a clean power future that is brought about by innovations in technology, business practices, and regulations will lead to a new political narrative about energy and the environment. The new politics is more democratic in two ways. First, incumbent large-scale energy firms, that have long grown accustom to government regulatory and financial support, must recognize and accept the fact that the energy sector is becoming more competitive and, therefore, incumbent firms must participate in that sector with a variety of new entrants with new products and new technologies. Second, decision-making power over the energy future will shift away from large-scale incumbents to not only smaller new entrants but decision-making power will also shift from federal regulatory authorities to local and state actors and, ultimately, to consumers themselves. The increasing energy market competition, the expansion of choices available to consumers, and the development of new energy resources and products are all part of the democratization of energy.

Keynote Forum

Nils-Axel Morner

Stockholm University, Sweden

Keynote: Climate Change: Evidence of Holocene high-amplitude events
Climate Change 2017 International Conference Keynote Speaker Nils-Axel Morner photo
Biography:

Nils-Axel (”Niklas”) Mörner took his Ph.D. in Quaternary Geology at Stockholm University in 1969. Head of the institute of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics (P&G) at Stockholm University from 1991 up to his retirement in 2005. He has written many hundreds of research papers and several books. He has presented more than 500 papers at major international conferences. He has undertaking field studies in 59 different countries. The P&G institute became an international center for global sea level change, paleoclimate, paleoseismics, neotectonics, paleomagnetism, Earth rotation, planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction, etc. Among his books; Earth Rheology, Isostasy and Eustasy (Wiley, 1984), Climate Change on a Yearly to Millennial Basis (Reidel, 1984), Paleoseismicity of Sweden: a novel paradigm (P&G-print, 2003), The Greatest Lie Ever Told (P&G-print, 2007), The Tsunami Threat: Research & Technology (InTech, 2011), Geochronology: Methods and Case Studies (InTech, 2014), Planetary Influence on the Sun and the Earth, and a Modern Book-Burning (Nova, 2015).

Abstract:

In geology we have a long-term tradition to base our statements and conclusions on observational facts in nature itself. When it comes to climate change during the Holocene, we have very fine observational records in Scandinavia giving evidence of high-amplitude changes and past temperature 2.5 °C warmer than today.

Studies of past changes in climate have always been a natural part geology. Already in 1902, Gunnar Anderson [1] was able to demonstrate that climate in Sweden was 2.4 °C warmer than today in Mid Holocene time. During this period marsh turtle, water caltrop and Gotland ag were found in lakes and bogs in southern Sweden. A temperature about 2.5 °C warmer than today was further strengthened by the findings of casts of grape seeds in pottery from the Vrå Culture (~6000 BP). In the mountains pine logs from about 9000 BP are found 200 m above the present tree line. With the onset of the Sub-Atlantic period at about 500 BC, climate deteriorated (cooler and wetter).

So-called “recurrence surfaces” in peat bogs provide evidence of dry and warm event of multi-decadal duration (50 years, or so), recorded at 1050 AD, 500 AD, 550 BC, 1200 BC and 2300 BC [2, 3, 4]. These events were all warmer and dryer than today.

A stable isotope record from lake Tingstäde Träsk on Gotland [5] provided a continual temperature record of the Holocene; present day temperature was reached 9000 years ago and the Mid Holocene had a temperature 2.5 °C warmer than today. This is in full agreement with the temperature records from Greenland.

These records indicate that the present, post-1980, warming is by no means unique; neither in amplitude nor in rate of change.Consequently, there is no scientific reason to advocate an anthropogenic forcing for the present warming.

Climate Change 2017 International Conference Keynote Speaker Suzanne Russo photo
Biography:

Suzanne Russo is Chief Operating Officer of Pecan Street Inc., a not-for-profit energy and water research & development organization headquartered in Austin, Texas. Pecan Street is known for its unique living labs approach to accelerating innovation in clean energy, distributed energy economies, and residential water conservation. Prior to joining Pecan Street in 2010, Suzanne served as Director of Sustainability Initiatives for New York City’s Department of Housing Preservation and Development where she led the development of green building standards and education programs for New York City’s affordable housing providers. An urban planner with a Masters in Community and Regional Planning from the University of Texas at Austin, Suzanne has worked in East Africa, China, India and several states in the USA on community-based sustainable development.  Forbes recently named her one of five women ‘Using Technology to Blow Up Social Change.’

Abstract:

The United States remains the world’s largest per capita emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) and the second largest national emitter of GHGs. Now, more than ever, meaningful progress to rapidly reduce GHG reductions will depend on community-level action. Pecan Street Inc.’s data-driven approach to technology and policy solutions is a model for how to move forward. Pecan Street’s approach to data collection, analysis, rapid technology and policy evaluation through field trials, and evidence-driven policy recommendations is an emerging model applicable to countries around the world seeking to mitigate climate change while building robust regional economies.

Pecan Street Inc. created and maintains the world’s largest database on residential energy use available to researchers. The data is available for free to university researchers around the world through a state-of-the-art interactive database portal, Dataport (www.dataport.cloud). Currently, over 675 researchers from 47 countries are using this data.

To generate its datasets, Pecan Street engages with businesses and homeowners to instrument their properties with appliance-level energy monitoring systems. The data is used to understand the opportunities for rapid energy conservation and clean energy conversion and for optimization of clean energy solutions. The data is further used to evaluate the impacts of new technologies or policy interventions, providing rapid, verifiable results on theirefficacy.

Examples of outcomes from this approach include: 1) revealing that south-facing PV systems in Texas reduce more peak grid demand than west-facing systems, which resulted in changes to Texas utilities and California PUC policies governing rebates for residential PV systems; (2) development of optimized hardware and software solutions for battery integration at the residential level and utility scale; and (3) galvanizing communities to take more effective actions to directly combat climate change, such as the installation of over 1MW of rooftop PV spread across 211 homes as a result of the data provided by Pecan Street.

Keynote Forum

Vladimir Babeshko

Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia

Keynote: Climate, some natural anomalies and seismicity
Climate Change 2017 International Conference Keynote Speaker Vladimir Babeshko photo
Biography:

Vladimir Babeshko has completed his HD (Doctor of Mechanics) in 1974 from Russian Academy of Sciences. During many years he is a chief of Scientific-Research Center for Forecasting and Preventing Geo Ecological and Technologic Disasters Kuban State University and Southern Research Center, Russian Academy of Sciences. He has 20 patents, published 7 monographs and more than 500 papers in reputed journals such as Russian Academy of Sciences and many others. He is the author of the Theory of the Block Element Method, has discovered the “Starting Earthquake”, and has gotten the mathematical explanations of the some Weather and Climate Change.

Abstract:

1. The question of localization some natural processes described by mixed boundary problems wasexplored As a result of research of this problem, taking into account seasonal changes in temperature near the Earth's surface, without taking into account the well-known strong seasonal movements of the atmosphere, trade-wind and other circulations in the atmosphere, is studied the behavior of the temperature in the surface layer. As a result some conformities were found which were not previously described, but which manifest themselves as abnormal phenomena since arise in enough favorable conditions. These are such things as the “bab’eleto” in Russia, “Aitweibersommer“ in Germany, “Indian summer” in the United States, summer snowfall, foul weather in one area, while the equanimity is so close.

2. The contact problem of acting of the two semi-infinite Kirchhoff plates on the elastic layer is considered. The vertical stresses acts on the plates. The problem is to study the contact stresses concentrations between the plates and the layer in this block structure. It was proved that the contact stresses concentrations in the end-walls of the plates became singular if thedistance between plates is equal to zero. It can induce the destruction of the materials in engineering or appearance of the earthquake in seismology. The influences of the climate change on the seismicity are discussed.

This work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, projects nos. (15-01-01379), (15-08-01377), (16-41-230214), (16-41-230218), (16-48-230216), (177-08-00323), by the Program no 1-33P of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences, projects nos. from (0256-2015-0088) till (0256-2015-0093) and State Order, project (0256-2014-0006).

Keynote Forum

Franco Maranzana

Stratex Djibouti, Italy

Keynote: My involvement with climatic changes
Climate Change 2017 International Conference Keynote Speaker Franco Maranzana photo
Biography:

Prof. Franco Maranzana is General Manager of Stratex Djibouti from the year of 2010. He was Consulting assignments in Egypt (Stratex and Terra), in Croatia, as a follow up of the Regione Friuli Venezia Giulia in Slavonia. He served Director of Project UN-Ministry Foreign Affairs, "SEISMED" on the subject of seismic risk in the Mediterranean Basin in the period of 1988 to 1992. A multidisciplinary activity is involving collaboration with experts and institutions of the 16 countries in the area, promoting and assessing methodologies of risk evaluation and reduction. Aspects of climate changes, he completed his education in Arts and classical studies in Trieste and degree in geology at Rome University (1959) Post graduate course at the Imperial College, London (1963 -64).

Abstract:

Will be Updated Soon..

Climate Change 2017 International Conference Keynote Speaker Thomas Wysmuller photo
Biography:

Tom Wysmuller forecasted weather at Amsterdam’s Royal Dutch Weather Bureau after studying meteorology at NYU/Stanford. He worked throughout NASA during the Moon Landings, at Pratt & Whitney, and held insurance industry executive and board positions.  The Polynomial Regression code he produced is used by climate scientists for analysis and modeling.  He lectures worldwide on the SCIENCE/DATA needed to understand climate. 

In 2008, Tom was highlighted in the “50th Anniversary of NASA” issue of AIAA’s “Horizons” magazine. He was the meteorologist on 2012’s NASA 49/41; Scientists, Astronauts, Engineers, and Center Directors requesting improvements in NASA’s handling of climate issues. He chaired “Water Day” in 2013 at UNESCO-IHE, and was the Oceans Climate speaker at the Water Conference (2015), in Varna, Bulgaria, and at the London Climate Conference in 2016.  In November, he chaired the Oceanographic Section at the massive World Congress of Oceans in Qingdao, China, and was the featured Sea-Level presenter.

Abstract:

CO2 and sea-levels have tracked consistently for the past 5,000 years, with sea-levels exhibiting a slight but consistent linear rise.  During the same period, atmospheric temperatures stayed within a ±2C zone, but ranged up and down with wide swings. Recent examples include the +0.6C Medieval Warm period (500-1100AD), and the -0.6C Little Ice Age (1200-1800AD). At the same time, CO2 has been remarkably linear at 280 ppm, except for a spectacular 43% rise to 400ppm that began in the mid 1800s.

Local sea-level effects are dominated by tectonic influences, with uplift and subsidence factors the major long-term drivers; tides and ocean currents have the short-term effects.  Tide Gauges have been reliable, but averaging them worldwide leads to bias, as many more are located in areas of subsidence than uplift. Renowned sea-level experts have made this abundantly clear [1,2].

Satellites measuring sea-level have not performed as promised; resolution insufficiency and orbital tracking errors compelled adjustments, skewing mostly linear readings in an upward direction that taxed credibility. [3]. No recent projection (IPCC4, NOAA5, USNCA6) appears to have any chance of accuracy.

The most recent upward spike (38%) in CO2 from 280ppm in 1880 to 400ppm at present (2016), has not had a validated measurable influence on Sea-Level Rise by any metric available, and provided a very uncomfortable inconvenience at last year’s Paris COP21 Climate talks. It was this factor, more than any other, that led to provisions in the Paris Accord allowing nations to exit at will, without consequence. [7].

Climate Change 2017 International Conference Keynote Speaker Rosa Galvez photo
Biography:

Senator Galvez’s background is in Civil engineering. In 1989 and 1994, obtained respectively, a master and doctorate in environmental engineering from McGill University, Canada.She is full professor at the Department of Civil and Water Engineering at Laval University in Quebec, Canada, were she served the last 6 years as Chair. The fields of expertise of Senator Galvez include Water and Wastewater Treatment Process, Integrated Watershed Management, Municipal and Hazardous waste management, Soil Rehabilitation studies, Environmental Impacts Assessment, Risk Analysis and Aid decision Methods. Dr. Galvez is an internationally recognized researcher, author of hundreds of scientific articles and technical documents. More than 80 students have graduated under her supervision with many of them holding important posts in consulting and academic sectors around the world. She has received substantial funds that have allowed the construction and installation of state-of-the-art environmental laboratories. 

Abstract:

Canada has thousands of lakes with the number of lakes larger than three-square kilometers being estimated to 31 752 by the Atlas of Canada. Hundreds of these lakes are affected by algae blooms and implicate harmful cyanobacteria, posing toxic effects to human health, the environment and the Canadian economy.

Toxic blue-green algae thrive in warm, slow-moving water and that is why lakes are particularly vulnerable. Harmful algae bloom during summer seasons. Warmer water due to climate change might favor harmful algae by encouraging blue-green algae survival and preventing water mixing.

Moreover, Canada uses de-icing salts for winter road maintenance, which during spring are carried by surface runoff from highways ditches to streams and to lakes; this is provoking the presence of saline cyanobacteria to appear in freshwater environments.

Algae need carbon dioxide to survive. Higher levels of carbon dioxide in the air and water can lead to rapid growth of algae, especially toxic blue-green algae that have the ability to float or think according to their needs. While extreme rainfall events associated to climate change can dilute lake water volumes, these events are also followed by periods of drought that can lead to more algal blooms, or soil erosion carrying the associate undesired nutrients.

This presentation will include statistics concerning Canadian lakes water quality; blue algae presence in Quebec province lakes. A case study will be presented: St-Augustin Lake, considered as an example where extreme conditions occur. Actions that can be applied to adapt and attenuate impacts.

  • Track: Climate Change & Climatology
    Track: Climate Change Challenges
    Track: Climate Change Economics
Location: Room 1

Session Introduction

Jie He

Princeton University, USA

Title: The future of subtropical rainfall
Speaker
Biography:

Jie’s research focuses on understanding the physical mechanisms of the climate system using model simulations. Jie’s presentation about the subtropical precipitation has recently been published in Nature Climate Change. In the past, he has studied changes in hydroclimate and atmospheric circulation from anthropogenic forcing. He has also worked on understanding and reducing uncertainties in climate projections on both global and regional scales. One of his current research projects involves the dynamics of tropical air-sea interactions. The goal is to quantify various coupling feedback processes in order to build a simple and practical framework for understanding model biases and future changes in air-sea interaction. He has also started working on the connection between transient climate sensitivity and regional ocean heat uptake.

Abstract:

The subtropics encompass many of the world’s driest regions and climate models robustly predict a large-scale decline in subtropical precipitation from anthropogenic forcing. This projection has become popularly related to the “dry-get-drier” paradigm. The expectation that climate change will generally exacerbate the rainfall deficiency of the subtropical regions has excited great concerns. On the other hand, some studies have attributed the subtropical precipitation decline to the poleward expansion of the Hadley cell. In this talk, I will show that neither the “dry-get-drier” nor poleward expansion mechanism is relevant to the large-scale subtropical precipitation decline. It is found that the subtropical precipitation decline forms primarily from the fast adjustment to CO2 forcing in which neither of the two proposed mechanisms exist. Permitting the increase in moisture and the Hadley cell expansion does not substantially change the characteristics of the large-scale subtropical precipitation decline. This precipitation change should be interpreted as a response to the land-sea warming contrast, direct radiative forcing of CO2 and in certain regions, pattern of SST changes. In addition, a careful examination of the spatial patterns of the projected precipitation change shows that the subtropical precipitation decline is primarily located over ocean. Over subtropical land regions, the precipitation decline is muted or even reversed by the land-sea warming contrast.

Jaime Senabre

University of Alicante, Spain

Title: Wildland fires, climate change and society
Speaker
Biography:

Jaime Senabre (Alicante, 1966). Degree in Psychology. He completed doctoral studies in the Department of Personality, Evaluation and Psychological Treatment of the UNED, related to Stress and Immune System, Mobbing and Trauma.

He is Brigade Chief of Wildland firefighter with 20 years of experience. As a psychologist, he collaborates with several companies and institutions in the area of ​​training in Emergency Psychology and Human Resources. Collaborates as Professor of the University of Valencia in the Master in "Intervention and operational coordination in emergencies and catastrophes" and Diploma of University Specialization in "Instructor in Emergency Operative Services".

Director and President of the Scientific-Professional Committee of the National Symposium on Forest Fires. He has published numerous articles on forest fires, Stress, Psychosocial Risks and Emotional Trauma, mainly in relation to emergency services. He has collaborated with several magazines published in Spain.

Currently, he is attached to the Research Group on "Climate and Territory Planning" of the Faculty of Philosophy and Letters of the University of Alicante.

Abstract:

Wildland fires are an environmental problem in which many factors influence, but they also represent a natural process in many ecosystems and an evolutionary opportunity. Each ecosystem has a characteristic fire regime (frequency level, size, intensity and seasonality determined) that is considered as natural and necessary for the maintenance of the sustainability and biodiversity of the species. From Environmental Psychology we consider it as a latent risk that can compromise the socio-economic development of future generations, mainly in rural areas.

At the ecological level, the problem of forest fires arises when the balance between what is considered as "natural" and sustainable is broken. In Europe, there have been 2.5 million fires that have devastated 20 million hectares in the last 25 years (Legido et al., 2016), 70% of them in southern European countries and 51% in The Iberian Peninsula.

The current forest fire regime is likely to change due to its relation to the climate. The rainfall regime is also changing, with a decrease in water availability and an increase in drought periods, especially in Mediterranean countries. This change will not compensate for the increase in temperature and will increase the flammability of forest areas. But we should not make generalizations about the consequences of climate change, since this alone does not generate or generate a greater number of forest fires on the planet; Although this trend of change may facilitate conditions and favor more virulent and large fire scenarios, so it should be considered as a physical facilitator more in the universe of the problem.

From a causal and social view of the problem, omitting the role of "the human" (anthropogenic variables) in the probability of occurrence of forest fires would pose the problem in a partial way and would be exaggerating the protagonism granted to other types of factors more difficult control. The human being should be the centerpiece of analysis and evaluation, since it is the main detonator of the forest fires. The real "change" we should not look for in the climate or in other external aspects, but in the possibility of a change of thought and attitude of the human being with respect to the latent risk of forest fires.

Speaker
Biography:

Babak Farjad is currently a Post-doctoral Fellow at the University of Calgary. His work involves developing a hydrological modelling system to evaluate and predict the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrology of the Lower Athabasca River basin in Alberta, Canada. His PhD research was developing a modeling framework to investigate the impact of climate and land-use/cover change on hydrological processes in the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada.

Abstract:

Statement of the Problem: One of the main challenges in climate change impact assessment studies is selecting suitable climate change scenarios to be used in a regional environmental modelling system. Using all available Global Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios would be one way to build the complete picture of the range of climate change and variability but may not always be feasible for such studies. On the other hand, there is no recommended standard number of GCM scenarios to use while the number of GCMs is increasing at a rapid pace. This can be a more challenging case when it comes to understanding responses of hydrological regimes to climate change. This is because first using a large number of GCMs to a hydrological model to simulate the hydrological responses is computationally intensive. Second, even though some selected extreme climate change scenarios may appear to be useful, the non-linearity in the impact response can lead to quite different results. The purpose of this study: In order to shed some light on this issue, this study was undertaken to develop a methodology for selecting representative climate change scenarios that capture all plausible future climate variability affecting the hydrological response of a watershed. Methodology:The study employs three different methods; fuzzy clustering, k-means clustering, and change factors (CFs) to select climate change scenarios out of a combination of 33 GCM scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) in the Muskeg watershed in Alberta, Canada. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated to simulate streamflow under the selected GCM scenarios for the period of 2046-2065 relative to the baseline of 1986-2005 in the watershed. Flow duration curves (FDCs) were constructed to represent peak, mid-range average flow, and low daily flows, for each climate scenario. Findings: Results revealed that the fuzzy clustering-based method performed well compared to the k-means clustering and change factors (CFs) methods.Conclusion & Significance: This study gives clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios based on selecting representative scenarios that capture all plausible future variability affecting the hydrological response. However, the most appropriate climate scenarios for a particular region will not necessarily be the most appropriate for anotherregion due to different climate and geomorphological characteristics.

Speaker
Biography:

Youmin Chen has many work experiences as in the list below, and most of his duties in the work are in the technical aspects, such as database manager, scientific programmer. Therefore, he has a quite broad work area in the aspects of earth sciences such as WRF modeling and the CORDEX work; statistical downscaling (CCA, REOF, step-wise regression etc.); expanded downscaling and hydrological modeling; carbon cycle (in Max-Planck institute for Biogeochemistry); as well as weather generator (stochastic modeling with Monte Carlo method, QuantileMapping method) and so on. He is always trying to develop the technical work as good as possible. For instance, he was doing the CORDEX task in Bjerknes Center for Climate Research (Norway), and developed a series of scripts for WRF modeling and post-processing, so the CORDEX task could be rather easily carried out.

Abstract:

Using the WRF model, which is developed at the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in USA, we simulated an extreme storm event occurred in China in August 1975, a well-known event called the 758-storm. The reanalysis data, ERA40, from Europe Center for Medium Weather Forecast (ECMWF) was employed as the WRF’s boundary. The spatial resolution at the center of the simulated storm is set to be 2000 meter, which is realized by means of the nested domain in the study area. The simulation time step is set to be 60 minutes, corresponding to the 2000 meter spatial resolution. There are 60 layers in the sigma coordinate at the vertical direction and the top level pressure is defined as 50hPa. We first simulated 3-dimension structure of the 758-storm, which is used to analyze the development and mechanism of the storm event. Afterwards, an extra simulation experiment focusing on the 758-storm was carried out,i.e. through increasing the temperature variables by 2℃for the WRF simulation we explored how the climate warming influences the future storm events. In addition, We also generated a set of downscaled data based on CORDEXstandard for East Asia area and these CORDEX data was used to express the 758-storm, which shows significant difference with the simulation of 758-storm as above. Finally we concluded that the spatial resolution is very important for better simulation of extreme storm.

Speaker
Biography:

Deanna Jaiho Oh. At present, he is Professor in the Department of Environmental Atmospheric Sciences of the Pukyong National University since 2001. His primary field of research is Climate System, however, his current research interests include numerical weather prediction, disaster prevention, early warning, and regional impact of climate change. He has published more than 120 peer reviewed research papers and 26 books.

Abstract:

A method was developed to estimate a synthetic precipitation record for ungauged sites using irregular coarse observations. The proposed synthetic precipitation data were produced with ultra-high hourly resolution on a regular 1 × 1 km grid. The proposed method was used to analyze selected real-time observational data collected in South Korea from 2010 to the end of 2014. The observed precipitation data were measured using the Automatic Weather System and Automated Synoptic Observing System. The principal objective of the proposed method was to estimate the additional effects of orography on precipitation introduced by ultra-high-resolution (1 × 1 km) topography provided by a digital elevation model. The Global Forecast System analysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction was used for the upper atmospheric conditions, necessary for estimating the orographic effects. Precipitation data from 48 of the more than 600 observation sites used in the study, which matched the grid points of the synthetic data, were not included in the synthetic data estimation. Instead, these data were used to evaluate the proposed method by direct comparison with the real observations at these sites.

A bias score was investigated by comparison of the synthetic precipitation data with the observations. In this comparison, the number of Hit, False, Miss, and Correct results for 2010-2014 was 74738, 25778, 7544, and 367981, respectively. In the Hit cases, the bias score was 1.22 and the correlation coefficient was 0.74. The means of the differences between the synthetic data and the observations were 0.3, -3.9, -14.4, and -34.9 mm h-1 and the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were 2.7, 8.3, 19.3, and 39.6 mm h-1 for the categories of 0.5-10.0, 10.0-30.0, 30.0-50.0, and 50.0-100.0 mm h-1, respectively. In addition, in each range, the

60% difference between the synthetic precipitation data and the observation data was - 1.5 to +1.5, -5.0 to +5.0, -17.0 to +17.0, and -33.0 to +33.0 mm h-1, respectively.

Overall, the correlation coefficient of the synthetic precipitation data was >0.7 for 43 of the 48 test stations and the RMSE was <4 mm h-1 at 31 stations. The results are significant at all evaluation stations at the 0.05 significance level.

Speaker
Biography:

Fabiana Barbi is a postdoctoral researcher at the Centre for Environmental Studies (Nepam), University of Campinas (Unicamp) in Brazil. Her current research involves climate change policies in Brazil and China, concerning mitigation strategies at national level.She holds a PhD degree in Environment and Society (Unicamp, Brazil, 2013). She holds a MSc in Environmental Science (University of São Paulo, Brazil - 2007) and a BSc in Social Sciences and Sociology (University of Campinas, Brazil - 2002). She was a visiting researcher at the Center for US-China Policy Studies at San Francisco State University (2016) and at the Institute of Advanced Studies in Social Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China (2012).She is aresearch fellow of the Future Earth.

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the internalization process of the climate issue at the government level in Brazil and China. This analysis is based on three points: i) Trajectory of greenhouse gases emissions in Brazil and China, (1992-2016); ii) Political and institutional structures mobilized to the climate issue, focusing on mitigation; iii) Political responses related to climate change, through a historical reconstruction of policies related to climate change mitigation. The results of our analysis show that there has been a change in the profile of greenhouse gases emissions in Brazil. Land-use change and forestry sector has no longer been the most responsible for emissions since 2010. However, all other sectors have increased their emissions. In China, the emission growth level has declined reflecting the country's efforts in the installation of low carbon power generation and improvements in energy intensity. In Brazil, there was a significant increase in the production and systematization of studies and reports, which can assist the design and implementation of climate policies. China has also made some progress in this direction. In Brazil, the climate issue internalization process is characterized by three phases: i) establishment of political-institutional and scientific structures engaged with the issue; ii) development of political and scientific climatic agenda; iii) development of climate policies and strengthening scientific agenda. The national policy agenda is focused on the implementation of sectoral plans, to meet the voluntary mitigation targets established by the National Climate Change Policy. In the Chinese case, the process has two phases: the first, is more focused on combating air pollution, whereas the climate issue stands as secondary focus of action and the second, more proactive regarding concrete commitments on climate change, with the establishment of the National Climate Change Program and the National Leadership Panel on Climate Change.

Speaker
Biography:

Xinping Chen makes a long-term commitment to cooperative achieve high crop yield and high nutrient efficiency in the research of nutrient resource management. He has established the theoretical model and technical indicators of “In-season Root Nitrogen Management”. It suggests a new way to fertilizer saving, environment protecting and efficiency improving for the intensive agricultural production system. Meanwhile, he was also focus on the impact of climate change on the crop yield, especially the impact of precipitation, temperature and solar radiation with the crop model. He has successively undertaken lots of national projects and international cooperation projects, and published a large number of papers in journals like Nature, PANS, GCB, and EST.

Abstract:

Understanding yield potential (Yp) and yield gap (Yg) in current intensive maize (Zea mays L.) production is essential to meet future food demand with the limited resources. In this study, we used the agro-climatic zones (CZs) and the reference weather stations (RWS) buffer zones, together with the Hybird-Maize model to estimate maize Yp in the four maize-growing-regions of China under both irrigated and rainfed conditions. In irrigated maize areas, we got 70 RWS buffer zones, and total maize area in the RWS buffer zones covered 67% of the whole irrigated maize area.In rainfed maize areas, we got 106 RWS buffer zones, which covered 51% of the whole rainfed maize area. As a result, the average Yp was 14.2 t ha-1 and farmers have achieved 58% of Yp. The average water-limited yield potential (Yw) was 10.7 t ha-1 and farmers have achieved 65% of Yw. Further analysis for four maize-growing-regions showed that precipitation was a limiting factor for Yw to fully achieve Yp except in Southwest China (SW), whereas the average precipitation wasmore than 653 mm during maize growing season. The ratio between Yw and Yp (Yw/Yp) was 51% in Northwest China (NW), and around 80% in both Northeast China (NE) and North China Plain (NCP). The comparison of Yp in different regions showed the low Yp in NE was due to low temperature while Yp in both NCP and SW were limited by low solar radiation. In conclusion, our findings highlight the efficiency and importance to estimate Yp, Yw and Yg by the upscaling method with CZs and RWS buffer zones. Meanwhile, the comparison of Yp, Yw and Yg in different regions was important to improve maize production in future in China.

Speaker
Biography:

Hilaire Yankulije is a former Benedictine monk, graduated from Paris school of international affairs where he specialized in political sciences with a concentration on climate change policies. Lawyer, YANKULIJE holds a Master’s degree in Comparative Law and conduct a PHD research in Public Law at Université de Perpignan Via Domitia. Sociologist (Bachelor’s degree in social sciences from Kigali Independent University) he’s also a specialist of local governance and development (university advanced degree from Université Senghor d’Alexandrie).

Abstract:

The role of China in both in emission of Greenhouses gases is important.  This country is now world number one in above said gases emission and its yearly deposits in atmosphere is enormous. In 2009, the Chinese emission was about 10, 33 Gt. This amount was representing more than 30% of Global emission because the latter was 35,27Gt.In 2014, according to international reports, the annual Chinese emission reached 29% of Global emission. For some details, the former Mongolian empire contributed to by two-thirds to the net growth of coal consumption and the latter part in global total CO2 deposited in atmosphere is 40%. Even it becomes evident that International community still seized by the problem the role of big emitters and china  particularly  remain a focus of every one who want to examine the problem.

As many of world countries China have submitted its INDC in which it promises to enhance the   actions against  climate change among which the reduction of  CO2 emission by  33.8% lower than the 2005 level; to increase the forest area  by 21.6 million hectares and 2.188 billion cubic meters compared to the 2005 levels. In the electrification of energy, China envision to build a hydropower capacity of 300 gigawatts  the  capacity of on-grid wind power is 95.81 gigawatts  and the capacity of solar power of  The installed capacity of solar power is 28.05 gigawatts. However, in the aftermath of COP21 we can ask ourselves how China is translating into action those promises. This Paper aim at exploring how China five years economic plan envisions to reduce Greenhouse gases emission.

Chris Moseki

Dept. of Water and Sanitation, South Africa

Title: Climate change impacts on groundwater: Literature review
Speaker
Biography:

Chris Moseki has 15 years experienced in groundwater development and water resources management.   He also served as a research manager at the Water Research Commission responsible for development of tools and systems for adaptation to climate change over a period of 6 years. He is currently a climate change specialist scientist at the Department of Water and Sanitation.  His interest includes research in groundwater and climate change as well as resolution of climate and water related problems in the public sector.

Abstract:

Water is indeed a medium through which climate change influences the Earth’s ecosystem particularly since any negative impact thereon has ripple effect on almost everything else.   The change in frequency, intensity and patterns in rainfall, as well as change in temperature has implication for replenishment of groundwater storage.  However, groundwater-residence times can range from days to tens of thousands of years or more, which delays and disperses the effects of climate and challenges efforts to detect responses in the groundwater to climate variability and change.  Hence, understanding the potential effects of climate variability and change on groundwater is more complex than with surface water.   Several studies relating to the effect of climate changes on surface water bodies have been undertaken while very little research exists on the potential effects of climate change on groundwater. This literature review aims to collate and depict work done previously on climate change impact on groundwater and to serve as a prelude to a research study on what and how appropriate response measures should be taken.      A simplistic empirical relationship between mean annual rainfall and recharge was used in research to show that a decrease in rainfall over the central parts of Southern Africa could have dire consequences for groundwater dependent communities. Findings were that 20% decrease in mean annual rainfall volumes could translate to an 80% decline in recharge for areas that currently receive 500 mm rainfall per annum or less.   Other studies show that the sea-level rise that accompanies climate change will reduce the freshwater supply in many coastal communities, by infiltrating groundwater and rendering it brackish and undrinkable without excessive treatment.  This shows that the impact of climate change on groundwater may be in terms of quality such as deterioration of water by saline intrusion or in terms of quantity.

Speaker
Biography:

Professor and Dean of School of Atmospheric Science, Sun Yat-senUniversity, China. Served as Director-General, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration during 2003-2008; as  aMember of Scientific Planning Groupfor China of Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research since 2006; as a member of Scientific Steering Committee of CLIVAR/WCRP during 2007-2011; as Chairmen of GEWEX-CNC since 2005; as the lead author of WGI of IPCC AR5 since 2010 and the P.I. of the project “Multi-model ensemble projection and attribution of climate change based on CMIP5”. Research interests: climate change, climate dynamics and climate prediction, land-atmosphere interactions, regional and global climate modeling, flood and drought, monsoon dynamics, orderly human activity and living environment. Published 130 papers and 5 books.

Abstract:

Integrated assessment models and coupled earth system models both have their limitations in understanding the interactionsbetween human activity and the physical earth system. In this paper, a new human–earth system model, BNUHESM1.0,constructed by combining the economic and climate damage components of the Dynamic Integrated Model ofClimate Change and Economy to the BNU-ESM model, is introduced. The ability of BNU-HESM1.0 in simulating theglobal CO2 concentration and surface temperature is also evaluated. We find that, compared to observation, BNU-HESM1.0underestimates the global CO2 concentration and its rising trend during 1965–2005, due to the uncertainty in the economiccomponents. However, the surface temperature simulated by BNU-HESM1.0 is much closer to observation, resulting fromthe overestimates of surface temperature by the original BNU-ESM model. The uncertainty of BNU-ESM falls within therange of present earth system uncertainty, so it is the economic and climate damage component of BNU-HESM1.0 that needsto be improved through further study. However, the main purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach to investigatethe complex relationship between human activity and the earth system. It is hoped that it will inspire further ideas that provevaluable in guiding human activities appropriate for a sustainable future climate

Speaker
Biography:

OyelekeOyerinde has his expertise in environmental management and assessment with bias for petroleum related activities such as gas flaring and venting, oil spillage as well as climate related events. He is a burgeoning but fervent scholar in teaching and research in educational institutions. He is currently a faculty member of the first petroleum university in Africa.

Abstract:

Climate change is a global issue and its impact is felt everywhere by both humans and ecosystems. It is increasingly becoming a serious challenge to the inhabitants of the Niger delta region. Moreover, the Niger Delta region of Nigeria is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its fragile ecosystem and human activities that have heightened the propensity of climate change and its impacts on the region. This paper draws attention to climate change impacts, adaptation strategies and mitigation policies for coastal areas of Niger Delta in Nigeria. A mix of primary and secondary data sources were utilized mainly comprising of interviews, direct observations and on the spot assessments in conjunction with existing research works and government ministries publications. Analyses show that various manifestations of climate change impact are evident in the coastal areas of Nigeria such as coastal erosion, change in rainfall pattern, sea level rise and flooding. The people within this region, who mostly depend on climate-sensitive sectors, attempt to adapt to these changes using various methods such as construction of wooden pedestrian bridges and delay in planting among others. Currently, there are no effective mitigative plans especially at the local level, therefore, it is recommended that this be addressed through well-articulated and coordinated policies.

Daniel Gbujie

University of Port Harcourt Teaching Hospital, Nigeria

Title: Is climate change the Armageddon foretold to the world?: A review
Speaker
Biography:

Gbujie Daniel major interest is the protection environment and promotion of sustainable development goals among developing nations in Africa.  He works temporarily with in a Teaching Hospital in Rivers State, Nigeria for over six years as a medical officer.  An advocate for youth empowerment through education, an environmental activist and an advocate of better health care delivery in Nigeria and West Africa. He has published articles, editorial and made numerous international presentations on sustainable development goals especially on health and leadership challenges. He serves on several local and national boards in Nigeria, an associate member of the World Medical Association, the Chief Volunteer Coordinator of Sure Health Organization an NGO and an official with Junior Doctors of Africa, currently an Atlas Corp Fellow for 2017 and was a delegate to the last UN climate change convention in Marrakesh Morocco.

Abstract:

Statement of the Problem: Climate change impact reveals how man has destroyed earth through burning of fossil fuel and depletion of natural resources. These activities may have worsened and altered the ecological biosphere by causing changes in all the climate entities. This extreme phenomenon called climate change has a negative impact on health. The aim of this paper is to encourage global and national proactive policies and strategic approaches towards tackling climate change.                                                      Methodology: This study involved screening of articles that primarily discussed climate change and its consequences. Articles used for this research came from scientific search engines, research journals, Newspapers, TV reporting, Textbooks and international agencies' reports on climate change.

Findings: This article identified the causes of climate change and its consequences to mankind. It equally noted the evolving human attitude towards other species and to follow humans manifesting in various forms as extreme violent conflicts, negative laws that hampers the effort to mitigate its impact, as they compete for the depleting natural resources. Further, juxtaposing these thoughts with what should be our urgent action plan to mitigate or manage possible consequences of climate change effects. Though the concept of using technology through geo-engineering system to create a climatic condition conducive for human existence seems promising for future, but promoting healthy lifestyles and public awareness to mitigating the climate change effect still remain a realistic approach in the interim while we encourage innovative energy efficient and renewable technology.                                                                                                                                Conclusion & Significance: This paper also is intended to contribute to the existing knowledge on climate change while creating awareness on the need to regulate human activities to prevent the likely extinction of life form on earth while providing a collaborative ideas or solutions for developing nations especially to attain sustainable ecological development through adaption and mitigation.