Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica, Brazil
Title: New methodology to design a pipeline under climate changes with data series of rain gauge in a city of Brazil
Daniela Martinsis graduated in Civil Engineering at UniversidadeEstadualPaulistaJúlio de MesquitaFilho in 1999. Master degree in Aeronautical Infrastructure Engineering at InstitutoTecnológico de Aeronáutica, ITA, São José dos Campos - SP, Brazil, with emphasis on Macrodrainage. Civil engineer at the Urbam in São José dos Campos. She has experience in Civil Engineering, with emphasis on Drainage and Macrodrainage, Martins made projects in Airport Infrastructure. She is currently doctor student in Airport Infrastructure Engineering with emphasis on hydrology and hydrological modeling.
Statement of the Problem: Design of a simple pipe system under climate changes. Design drainage systems is usually basedon local parameters, such as area of the basin, slope angle of the surface and rainfall intensity. The determination of IDF (intensity-duration-frequency) curves, which determines the project rainfall intensity, is basedon the statistics of extremes, which usually assumes stationarity of rainfall series. However, with the evident global climate changes (IPCC, 2013 and 2014), the theory of extremes will require another kind of statistical modeling (katz, 2010; Linyin Cheng & Amir AghaKouchak, 2014; Devore, 2016),which may have strong influence on these drainage structures design. Methodology & Theoretical Orientation:in this work, the statistics of nonstationary extremes is applied to practical design problems of pipeline systems.The size of structuresand water flowwill be assessed with regard of the changes in these figures caused by the new methodologies presented herein. The purpose of this work is to demonstrate through a simple project the changes that may occur when climate changesare taken into account. Moreover, changes in costs caused by the proposed methodology will also be assessed. Findings: surprisingly, the particular case studyof this work did not show increase on project rainfall intensity, but a decrease of this parameter. Nevertheless, future works should extend this study to other basins with recorded data such as rainfall gauge, in order to make comparisons between local data series. Conclusion & Significance: The design of drainage structures should be revised to take into account climate change scenarios. However, scarcity of consistentclimate data seriesin Brazil is an important constraint to future studies, because short time series may cause wrong estimation of rainfall intensities, whichlead to wrong design calculations.